2023.05.08

• International Security Order

War in Ukraine will set a course for international order — whatever the outcome (Geoeconomic Briefing)

More than a year has passed since Russia invaded Ukraine, and there is no prospect of the war ending anytime soon. Still, how this war started, has been fought and will end will determine the future of the international order. Russia’s use of military force against neighboring countries is nothing new, with the 2008 Russia-Georgia war, the 2014 annexation of Crimea and the 2015 intervention in Syria’s civil war serving as some recent examples. Still, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was a particularly serious attack on the international order, as it was an act of aggression aimed at overthrowing the regime of and occupying a sovereign state, as well as an action made by a permanent member of the U.N. Security Council. If the Russian invasion of Ukraine creates a strategic gain for Moscow while the international community fails to impose a corresponding penalty, the premise of international order is bound to collapse.